Black Friyay or Nay?🛍️

It may still feel like Summer, but Entrepreneurial Brands set to thrive this Q4 are already preparing for the key retail moments later in the year - this week, Rhys Appleyard, International Client Director at The Specialist Works, reveals what to expect for retail in Q4 this year.

We’re heading into the final quarter of 2025 - and the retail and media game is about to switch up. From shifting shopper habits to shiny new media formats, Q4 isn’t just busy; it’s bursting with chances to connect, convert and create real impact.

💡 Retail media is booming - and it’s not slowing down. WARC predicts global spend will hit a massive $201bn by 2026, overtaking linear TV. Amazon continues to dominate, but new players like Uber and PayPal are shaking up the game. This means more places to show up, more first-party data, and richer targeting opportunities than ever before.

📱 Mobile is king, according to Experian (insert gag about 2025 being the Year of Mobile here). Mobile shopping now makes up 70%+ of orders, with AI tools boosting conversions by up to 15%. Shoppers are bouncing between TikTok, Google, AI and in-store - and hybrid shoppers spend 1.5x more than single-channel buyers.

🛒 Hybrid shopping remains dominant. Just under half of shoppers mix online and in-store, and Black Friday now grabs 17% of festive spend. The smart brands? They’re not waiting for December. They’re going big in November with addressable AV campaigns that catch audiences, wherever they’re watching.

Although… inflation and uncertainty still play a part, with 91% of consumers planning to tweak their spending this Black Friday/Christmas. Still, big-ticket gifts like AirPods and Oura Rings are back in baskets - all suggesting a bifurcation in consumer priorities.

🎯 Addressable AV is a Q4 power play. Thinkbox’s latest data calls out “Reach Extenders”- a middle tier of viewers who make up 28% of BVOD, but only 7% of linear TV. BVOD is 3.5x more efficient at reaching them.

For “Reach Extenders”, certain genres shine:

• Drama, films, and kids’ content over-index 📺

• Best performance in peak slots (8–11pm) and weekends

• Standout titles: Brassic, Dexter, Santa Claus: The Movie 🎄

• Taskmaster (20th series) continues to pull huge audiences 🎯

Last Q4, Online Retail and Retail led the pack for AV impacts - ranking first and second in the festive period, according to BARB. That momentum’s not slowing as this year’s holiday season approaches. 📈

👀 But not everyone’s glued to screens. The IPA’s Christmas Consumer 2025 report says 47% of UK adults want to cut screen time, with Gen Z and Millennials leading the charge. That means campaigns need more purpose and heart. What’s working?

• Nostalgia 🕰️ (37%)

• Humour 😄 (34%)

• Storytelling 📖 (29%)

• What’s not? Overt product pushes and celeb cameos…

Our Specialist View? Q4 2025 isn’t just about pushing products - it’s about stories that stick. Brands that blend smart targeting, emotional pull, and data-rich platforms can turn this festive season into long-term wins.

If you want to chat more about the media opportunities that lie ahead for your brand in Q4, reach out to your client director today.

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That’s it for this edition of The Specialist View. We’ll be back soon with more sharp thinking, fresh perspectives, and the kind of media intelligence that helps entrepreneurial marketers turn ambition into action – and impact. Because specialist work is what we do – and as a proudly independent media agency, we’re equally proud of the passionate specialists behind it. Their curiosity, craft and commitment drive everything we deliver, from smarter strategies to standout results. It’s this depth of expertise and energy that sets us apart – helping our clients move faster, think bigger, and demand more from their media.